山东确诊内地第二例甲型流感病例http://www.sina.com.cn 2009年05月13日14:39 中国广播网 视频：山东确诊内地第二例甲型H1N1流感病例 中广网北京5月13日消息（记者刘天思）卫生部通报，5月13日，山东省报告的甲型H1N1流感疑似患者被诊断为确诊病例，这是我国内地第二例输入性确诊病例。 5月13日上午，中国疾病预防控制中心和中国医学科学院对山东报告的甲型H1N1流感疑似患者咽拭子标本通过实验室检测，显示该患者甲型H1N1流感检测结果为阳性。通过基因序列同源性比较，与甲型H1N1流感病毒代表株（A/California/04/2009）同源性为99.6%，与我国四川确诊病例的序列同源性为99.6%，与季节性流感病毒H1N1代表株（A/Brisbane/59/2007）的同源性为79.7%，确认该标本的核酸检测结果为甲型H1N1流感病毒阳性。卫生部专家组根据疑似患者的临床表现、流行病学调查结果和实验室检测结果，按照卫生部制定的诊疗方案判定该病例为甲型H1N1流感确诊病例。 目前，卫生部正会同民航局、公安部和北京市、天津市、山东省人民政府以及有关部门全力开展密切接触者的追踪工作，对追踪到的密切接触者进行医学观察。联防联控工作机制将继续贯彻落实党中央、国务院提出的防控策略，不断加强疫情监测报告、口岸及交通检验检疫等专业技术防控措施和应对准备工作。同时，积极支持、指导山东省卫生部门做好患者的医疗救治和疫情的防控工作。 患者吕某某，男，19岁，目前就读加拿大某大学。5月7日12时（加拿大时间）患者乘AC029航班从加拿大出发，5月8日14时30分抵达北京。5月10日20时，患者自感发热。5月11日下午自测体温39℃，并伴有咽痛、头痛等症状。5月11日19时25分，患者乘坐D41次列车离开北京，当晚22时35分抵达济南。患者于21时49分在火车上主动向济南市疾病预防控制中心报告，济南市疾病预防控制中心专业人员在列车抵达济南后，立即将其转送济南市传染病院隔离治疗。5月12日上午，济南市疾病预防控制中心和山东省疾病预防控制中心分别对患者标本进行检测，结果均为甲型H1N1流感疑似阳性。山东省卫生厅组织省内专家组进行会诊，初步诊断患者为甲型H1N1流感疑似病例。 卫生部已将该病例的有关情况通报世界卫生组织、港澳台地区和部分国家。
据BBC新闻报道，如果猪流感持续6-9个月的话，世界将有三份之一的人口感染
据英国一家研究院 专家预测，平均1000人里面会有一个人死亡。
Swine flu could hit one in three
People in Mexico have been wearing masks as a precaution
A third of the world's population could be infected with swine flu, expert projections suggest.
Researchers say swine flu has "full pandemic potential", spreading readily between people and is likely to go global in the next six to nine months.
Although one in three who come in contact will likely become infected, the Imperial College London team declined to estimate the death toll.
The study based on Mexico's experience is published in the journal Science.
This virus really does have full pandemic potential
Professor Ferguson
The number of laboratory-confirmed swine flu cases has reached 5,251 in some 30 countries around the world, with 61 having died from the disease, the World Health Organization has confirmed.
Working in collaboration with the WHO and public health agencies in Mexico, the researchers assessed the Mexico epidemic using data to the end of April and taking into account factors like international spread and viral genetic diversity.
Lead researcher Professor Neil Ferguson said it was too early to say whether the virus will cause deaths on a massive scale, or prove little more lethal than normal seasonal flu.
His "fast and dirty" analysis of Mexico's swine flu outbreak suggests that the H1N1 virus is about as dangerous as the virus behind a 1957 pandemic that killed 2 million people worldwide.
But it's not nearly as lethal as the bug that caused the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which caused an estimated 50 million deaths in 1918.
Its full impact on the UK is not likely to be known until the annual flu season in the autumn and winter, when a "really major epidemic" can be expected in the northern hemisphere, says Professor Ferguson.
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Prof Ferguson, who sits on the World Health Organisation's emergency committee for the outbreak, told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "This virus really does have full pandemic potential. It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world's population.
"To put that into context, normal seasonal flu every year probably affects around 10% of the world's population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual - not allowing for whether this virus is more severe than normal seasonal flu viruses."
His study suggests swine flu could kill four in every 1,000 infected people.
Professor Ferguson said his findings confirmed that decisions must be taken swiftly on vaccine production.
"We really need to be prepared, particularly for the autumn. At the moment, the virus is not spreading fast in the northern hemisphere, because we are outside the normal flu season, but come the autumn it is likely to cause a really major epidemic.
"One of the key decisions which has to be made this week by the world community is how much do we switch over current vaccine production for seasonal flu to make a vaccine against this particular virus? I think those decisions need to be made quickly."
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